Surprising Twist: Home Prices Defy Crash Predictions

During the last quarter of the previous year, numerous housing experts warned of an impending crash in home prices for this year. Here are some of their forecasts:

Jeremy Siegel, Wharton School of Business Professor Emeritus:
Predicted a 10% to 15% decrease in housing prices, emphasizing the accelerating downward trend.

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics:
Warned of a potential national house price drop of nearly 10% if interest rates remained around 6.5% and the economy narrowly avoided a recession.
Suggested a 20% decline in house prices during a typical recession.

Goldman Sachs:
Noted that housing markets were cooling in the U.S., expecting a 5% to 10% decline in home prices due to rising interest rates.
Acknowledged the possibility of even larger declines than their model suggested.

Impact on Consumer Confidence:

These predictions had a negative effect on consumer confidence, particularly evident in the December Consumer Confidence Survey by Fannie Mae. The survey revealed a higher percentage of Americans believing home prices would fall in the following year compared to any other December in the survey's history. Consequently, individuals became hesitant about their homebuying or selling plans as the new year began.

The Surprise: Home Prices Remain Resilient

Contrary to these dire predictions, home prices did not experience a crash and are showing signs of rebounding from minimal depreciation in recent months.

Goldman Sachs recently released a report stating that the global housing market is stabilizing faster than expected, with house prices rising in major economies, including the U.S.

This claim was supported by the release of two home price indexes, Case-Shiller and FHFA, which both indicated positive trends in home values.


The housing market has proven to be much stronger than anticipated. To gain an accurate assessment of your local market, it is advisable to consult a trusted real estate professional.

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